Dismantling State and Societal Capture from Below: A Comparison of the Contentious Episodes in North Macedonia (2015–2017) and Serbia (2024–2026)

This article undertakes a structured, focused comparison of two contentious episodes: North Macedonia (2015–2017) and Serbia (2024–2026). Both emerged from similar structural conditions of state and societal capture, yet produced divergent outcomes. Our goal is theoretical: we aim to identify mechanisms that facilitate democratic opening in captured settings and to assess, prospectively, the trajectory of the ongoing Serbian case. Relying on a most-similar-systems design with contrasting outcomes, we leverage these real-world episodes to draw analytical inferences. The comparison highlights two mechanisms that were present and consequential in North Macedonia but have not yet emerged in Serbia: (1) the uniting of opposition forces against the dominant party, encompassing both civic–political alignment and recombination in the party system, including the defection of a governing partner; and (2) sustained involvement by international actors, particularly the EU and the US. We argue that, should either or both mechanisms emerge in Serbia, the opportunity structure may shift in ways more conducive to democratic opening under conditions of state and societal capture.

Jovan Bliznakovski

Jovan Bliznakovski


Jovan Bliznakovski is an Assistant professor in political science at the Institute for Sociological, Political and Juridical Research, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje. He holds a PhD in political studies from the University of Milan, Italy and MSc in political science from the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia. Bliznakovski’s current research is focused on political mobili-zation in the Western Balkan countries, with a focus on political clientelism and ethnic-based mobilization. In the period 2014–16, Bliznakovski served as program director of the Institute for Democracy Societas Civilis in Skopje (IDSCS).

Astrea Nikolovska

Astrea Nikolovska


Astrea Nikolovska is an associate researcher at the ERC project Memory and Populism from Below, hosted by the Institute of Ethnology at the Czech Academy of Sciences. Her research focuses on the visible and invisible legacies of the Cold War, counter-liberalism, the aesthetics of commemoration, and their influence on political narratives. She holds a PhD from the Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology at the Central European University.
 


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